The Ripple Effect
Recent headlines about Venezuela, Iran and Greenland have dominated the media, but an important shift is taking place on the other side of the pacific that will have ripple effects. The Chinese renminbi (RMB) has been steadily climbing, up in 14 of the last 16 weeks. This isn’t some market fluke; it’s a deliberate policy […]
Venezuela After Maduro
It shouldn’t surprise readers that the United States successfully carried out an operation to capture and remove Nicolás Maduro this weekend. I’ve been discussing a U.S. pivot toward South America for some time, and if there were any lingering doubts about the Trump administration’s intentions, they should be dispelled now. From confirmed reports, the operation […]
Energy is the Backbone: Why Power, Not Hype, Defines the AI Era
The most common question I’ve received over the past two months has been: “Is AI a bubble?” Hindsight will eventually provide full clarity, but like everyone else, I have an opinion. All the classic signs are screaming yes (i.e., valuations), which means the next logical question to ask is: What kind of bubble is this—a […]
Gold, Then and Now – Part II
A year ago in Gold, Then and Now, I argued gold was starting to matter again—not as a dollar-destroying machine, but as a way to pass the risk of currency erosion to someone else. I said it wasn’t a reliable inflation hedge. It was insurance against policy mistakes. Back then, gold traded around $2,400. Today, […]
Glass Half Full
Ever since President Donald Trump’s first salvo of tariffs against China in 2018, the relationship between the two countries has turned sour. While tariffs were placed on steel, aluminum, cars and the like, the real impact to China was semiconductors. If China could be cut off from technology advancement, they could be cut off from […]
0’s and 1’s and everything in-between
Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, famously predicted that computing power would double roughly every two years as transistors shrank, allowing more to fit on a microchip. This principle, known as Moore’s Law, held true for decades, driving exponential growth in technology. However, in recent years, maintaining this pace has become increasingly challenging due to physical […]
The GENIUS Act: Safeguarding the Dollar
The GENIUS Act was signed into law on July 18, 2025, establishing the first comprehensive US regulatory framework for stablecoins. Two additional cryptocurrency bills are also advancing through Congress: one to clarify which crypto assets fall under securities oversight, and another to prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency. To be […]
Foreign Investor Capital Flight?
The first half of 2025 has been eventful, and the second half promises to be equally dynamic. Two significant policy developments are poised to profoundly influence liquidity flows in the U.S. economy. The first is a set of proposed capital rule changes for U.S. banks, designed to enhance their capacity to hold Treasury bonds. The […]
Interlaced Events
The past 30 days have been a whirlwind of economic and geopolitical developments, offering no shortage of topics to dissect. Below, I’ve woven together key themes from the month, presenting both bullish and bearish perspectives. As an optimist, I believe that where there’s uncertainty, there’s always opportunity. Tariff Update In my previous post, Mutiny in the […]
Mutiny in the Global Economy
In The Wager: A Tale of Shipwreck, Mutiny, and Murder, David Grann masterfully recounts the harrowing true story of HMS Wager’s 1741 shipwreck off Patagonia’s desolate coast. Tasked with raiding Spanish colonies in the Pacific, the British naval ship braved Cape Horn’s ferocious storms—infamously dubbed “Cape Stiff” and “The Sailors’ Graveyard” for their deadly toll—only […]